Abstract: as the workers of the Escondida copper mine and BHP Billiton entered the final stage of negotiations, the last round of labor negotiations broke down in Chile's caserones copper mine, and a strike was imminent. The prospect of several copper mine strikes led to the rise of copper prices. However, the United States and China continued to impose tariffs on each other, and the trade tension promoted the risk aversion sentiment of the market and restricted the rebound of copper price. The copper price was on the whole this week Pick up.

1、 Trend of domestic spot copper price this week

The world's largest copper mine, the Escondida copper mine owned by BHP Billiton, has entered the final stage of negotiations after workers voted against the final wage proposal. BHP Billiton asked the authorities to carry out compulsory mediation. The copper union of caserones in Chile said on Wednesday that the last round of labor talks with miner lumina copper broke down and a strike was about to break out; China's CPI and PPI growth rates in July were higher than market expectations, with CPI returning to the "two times". The economic data superimposed well, and the prospect of strike led to the rise of copper prices.

In the week of August 10, the domestic spot copper price rose as a whole this week. The average price of copper in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals network was 49482 yuan / ton, with an average daily rise of 112 yuan / ton and a weekly rise of 1.14%; the previous week's average price was 49576 yuan / ton, down 94 yuan / ton, down 0.19% month on month.

2、 One week trend of copper futures price

With the prospect of copper strike in Chile and strong economic growth in China, the United States and China announced the second round of tariff plans one after another. The US side decided to impose a 25% tariff on US $16 billion of Chinese exports to the United States from August 23. The Chinese side responded that it had decided to impose a 25% tariff on US $16 billion imports from the United States, which would be implemented simultaneously with the US side. The global economic outlook has been clouded by the trade war, the risk aversion in the market is heating up, and the strong US dollar limits the rebound of copper prices.

CCMN data show that Luntong copper rebounded slightly this week. In the first four trading days, the average price of LME copper was at 6158.5 US dollars / ton, with a daily average increase of 5.25 dollars / ton; last week, the average price was at 6201.4 dollars / ton, down 0.69% month on month.

Data from the Yangtze River Nonferrous metal network showed that the copper rush in Shanghai fell this week. The average weekly settlement price of 1808 contract in the current month is 49434 yuan / ton, with an average daily increase of 114 yuan / ton; the average price of the previous week was 49496 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of 0.13%. This week, Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 21710 tons to 171107 tons, a decrease of 11.26%, and a cumulative decrease of 35.18% in the last six weeks.

3、 Inventory situation of Luntong copper week

As shown in the chart, the inventory of Lungshan copper increased by 2900 tons to 253525 tons this week, with a cumulative increase of 1.16%.

4、 Hot finance at home and abroad

In China:

1. In US dollar terms, China's import and export growth in July both exceeded expectations. Exports increased by 12.2% and imports by 27.3%, almost double the previous value. The trade surplus was US $28.05 billion.

2. China's CPI in July was 2.1% year-on-year, with an expected 2% and the previous value of 1.9%. China's PPI in July was 4.6% year-on-year, with an expected 4.5% and a previous value of 4.7%. Higher CPI than expected in February pushed CPI up again.

International:

1. In July, PPI in the United States grew zero month on month for the first time in seven months, as the moderate rise in commodity prices was offset by the decline in service prices. However, PPI excluding food, energy and trade services continued to rise by 0.3% month on month, flat on the growth rate of last month.

2. According to the Federal Reserve's senior loan survey in July, residential real estate loan demand is weaker; consumer loan demand is stable; commercial / industrial loan standards are relaxed; and business / industrial loan demand of small enterprises is stronger.

5、 News of copper market in a week

1. Chile's caserones copper union said on Wednesday that the last round of labor talks with miner lumina copper broke down and a strike was imminent. The 300 member workers' Union said lumina, a joint venture between JX holding and Mitsui mining, took a "tough" stance on their demands during the last part of the government mediated negotiations. If lumina fails to improve the terms of her contract by Friday, the strike will begin next Tuesday (August 14).

2. Miner BHP Billiton (BHP) said on Monday that it had formally requested a government mediation period during its talks with the Escondida copper Union in Chile, after workers threatened to strike. The union earlier asked the company to hold talks at 1400 GMT (22:00 Beijing time on Monday), but said in a statement later on Monday that it had begun preparations for a strike.

6、 Outlook of copper price

At present, many copper mines in Chile are on the verge of strike, while Vedanta's Indian copper smelter is unlikely to resume operation in the short term. The global copper market is short of supply, which is expected to boost copper prices. However, the uncertainty of international trade situation and the market's warming expectation of the Fed's interest rate increase have exerted pressure on copper prices. In the evening, focus on the US July CPI to be released.

China's additional tariff on US exports to China involves US $16 billion, including US scrap copper. Currently, US imports of scrap copper still account for about 20% of China's imports of scrap copper. Therefore, the tariff issue will not have a small impact on the supply of scrap copper in the future, or will continue to stimulate refined copper consumption; the domestic environmental protection and production restriction policy will continue to promote, or will have a certain impact on the supply and demand of copper market. China's economic data is relatively healthy, and the benefits of infrastructure construction are continuing to ferment. The trend of domestic inventory destocking has not changed for the time being. It is expected that copper prices will be in the bottom stage of shock and rebound next week.